KATY, Texas — The music is blaring and the smell of smoked meats fills the air at an old-school barbeque joint that is quickly running out of seats.

This political rally for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has drawn voters from the diverse Houston suburb of Katy.

They include Ricardo Vidaurre and his wife, who are both beaming at the crowd as they dance to “YMCA” and other MAGA favorites.

“He’s not your typical politician,” Vidaurre says of Paxton, in Spanish. “He has guts.”

Elections

Trump endorses Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in Texas Senate primary runoff

A day earlier, the MAGA loyalist was endorsed by President Trump as the state’s GOP nominee for U.S. Senate, in what has become the most expensive primary in history. The reelection campaign for four-term Sen. John Cornyn, a fixture of the party’s establishment wing, is now on life support.

The Republican political battle has raised the prospects for Democrats, who see this seat — and the Senate majority — in play.

As for the Katy campaign rally, it’s now morphed into what feels like an early victory party.

“Voting for Cornyn is like voting for a Democrat,” Vidaurre said.

Paxton’s supporters say Cornyn betrayed the party by working with Democrats on bipartisan gun legislation after the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. They also argue he should have helped nuke the Senate filibuster to clear the way for the Trump-backed SAVE Act to install new voting restrictions.

Republicans have spent more than $100 million in the bitter fight that has become a proxy battle for the future of the party. Throughout the GOP primary and the subsequent runoff race, Cornyn and Paxton have each argued they have the bona fides to lead the GOP into a post-Trump era.

In his message to voters, Cornyn says he voted with Trump more than 99% of the time. Paxton, for his part, says his work leading Texas in lawsuits against Democrats and their policies in Washington eclipses Cornyn’s long tenure in office.

“That’s more stuff in one week than John Cornyn in 42 years,” Paxton told the Katy crowd, speaking of Cornyn’s political career that began in state government. “That’s pretty pathetic.”

Paxton, 63, came to the race with legal and personal baggage. Since he became a state official more than ten years ago, he’s fended off criminal indictments, whistleblower allegations and an impeachment by the Texas House. He was acquitted in the Texas Senate. His estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last summer on “biblical grounds.”

Paxton supporters say his ability to survive political upheaval shows he’s a fighter. As for the divorce accusations?

“Gossip,” Vidaurre, the supporter from his rally, said.

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A “mud-soaked” fight for future of GOP

Cornyn, 74, argues the primary has exposed a crack in the red wall of Texas, which has remained a reliable and influential Republican state for decades. A Democrat has not been elected statewide here since 1994 and a Democrat hasn’t represented Texas in the U.S. Senate since 1993.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, says the Texas GOP primary is emblematic of a bigger national fight.

“The Republican Party is pulling itself apart ideologically,” he said. “This has been a long time coming. The wings of the party have been battling each other for a long while.”

The MAGA movement drew bigger numbers more than a decade ago with President Trump’s first presidential run. Now some are warning if MAGA has its way, the party’s tent may shrink as a result of the president’s policies and his falling poll numbers.

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“This has been the most dramatic, most mud-soaked of the primaries we’ve seen in Texas in a very long time,” Rottinghaus said. “And I think there’s good reason for that. This race will define the future of the Texas Republican Party.”

Rottinghaus says a Cornyn win would reinforce the influence of traditional conservatives and the business-minded governing wing of the party, while a Paxton victory would signal the MAGA populist faction that has been moving upwards is more likely to dominate statewide GOP politics in the future.

Whatever the outcome, MAGA populism could have a harder time winning in the general election.

“John Cornyn’s most profound argument isn’t that he’s the best Republican in the primary, but he’s the best Republican in the general,” Rottinghaus said.

Cornyn raises alarms about Democrats

On the campaign trail, Cornyn warned that the path to a blue wave in Texas runs through Paxton and could cost the party control of the Senate.

“If a Paxton were the nominee, this would be the first chance they’ve had in 30 or 40 years or longer to pick up a statewide office. And one as important as the U.S. Senate,” he told NPR last week from a North Texas stop ahead of Trump’s surprising endorsement.

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But even as Trump blindsided Cornyn with the nod for Paxton, Cornyn and his campaign are pushing full-steam ahead.

“I represent the whole Republican Party right now, having been elected to office in the primaries and in a general election,” Cornyn said from a stop in Houston. “It’s a matter of simple arithmetic. And so that’s why I always believe in the politics of inclusion – addition, not subtraction. And we need to broaden and welcome people.”

Cornyn supporter Vicki Fullerton saw Trump’s endorsement as a betrayal. She worries a Paxton nomination will force the party to take critical resources from other close Senate races.

“We’re going to have to pour so much more money in to protect the seat and they have a less viable candidate than John Cornyn,” she said.

Cornyn is raising the same alarms, saying Republicans’ close contests in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina could be hurt by spending in Texas.

Republican headwinds could create blue cracks in red Texas

Cornyn’s warnings come as Republicans already face headwinds in November’s midterm elections over the economy, rising gas prices and fallout from the Iran war.

That, in addition to the Republican infighting, could lead to blue cracks in the red wall in Texas, argues Democratic Party strategist Chuck Rocha.

“The commonality of all the voters in Texas are, they’re just pissed,” Rocha argues. “They’re pissed things cost twice as much. And they’re really pissed about the price of gas.”

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Since Democrats lost control of Texas in the mid-1990s, they have fallen for several blue mirages: for example, liberal darling Democrat Beto O’Rourke failed to win a Senate, presidential, or governor race in the state; MJ Hegar lost to Cornyn in 2020 despite hopes of a last-minute surge in Democratic turnout shifting the race; and state Sen. Wendy Davis also failed in her bid for governor in 2014, despite support from the national Democratic Party.

However, Rocha argues this time is different, contrasting Republican infighting in Texas to Democrats’ avoidance of a runoff with their party’s Senate nominee, state Rep. James Talarico.

He said Democrats are also seeing Latino voters who voted for Trump come back to the party due to concerns about the economy and aggressive immigration policies.

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(At the same time, recent NPR reporting suggests some swing voters also hold negative perceptions of Democrats nationally, in part due to party infighting.)

Rocha and others argue a win in Texas could help Democrats win back the Senate come November, pointing to the deep divisions the expensive Republican primary has exposed..

“One thing you don’t do in politics is if your enemy is digging a hole,” Rocha said, “you don’t run over and take the shovel out of their hands.”