{"id":1524,"date":"2026-05-18T12:39:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T12:39:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/?p=1524"},"modified":"2026-05-18T12:39:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T12:39:40","slug":"trump-cuts-to-weather-data-could-make-forecasts-less-reliable-warn-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/?p=1524","title":{"rendered":"Trump cuts to weather data could make forecasts less reliable, warn experts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border-color:var(--article-border);background-color:var(--article-inner-background)\" class=\"dcr-wqti5a\">\n<div class=\"dcr-2zxs1v\">\n<div style=\"--grid-area:media\" data-gu-name=\"media\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\">\n<div class=\"dcr-14emo0l\">\n<div class=\"dcr-tr9ye5\">\n<figure id=\"c10a2161-01a1-4ebd-a871-25771c97d7fc\" class=\"dcr-142siv7\">\n<div id=\"img-1\" class=\"dcr-1t8m8f2\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Workers in front of monitors at Noaa headquarters.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/2445be40575ff2f0236aa36f0f8b697decae86ac\/0_0_4000_2667\/master\/4000.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" width=\"465\" height=\"310.03875\" loading=\"eager\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"><span class=\"dcr-v822l1\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-gup2gr\">\n<div class=\"dcr-fntg6k\"><label for=\"the-checkbox\" class=\"dcr-1xgwz8b\"><\/label> <\/p>\n<div id=\"the-caption\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1os51wo\"><span class=\"dcr-hvsf4t\"><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Workers in front of monitors at Noaa headquarters.<\/span> Photograph: Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><a href=\"#img-1\" data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-13fd1ms\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><button data-element-id=\"c10a2161-01a1-4ebd-a871-25771c97d7fc\" type=\"button\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-4tmywn\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\"><span class=\"dcr-194i6pr\">View image in fullscreen<\/span><\/button><\/a><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"dcr-n4pnam\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1hdkqum\"><span class=\"dcr-hvsf4t\"><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Workers in front of monitors at Noaa headquarters.<\/span> Photograph: Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/span><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:border\" data-gu-name=\"border\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:headline\" data-gu-name=\"headline\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\">\n<div class=\"dcr-14emo0l\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1aqe7zu\">\n<h1 class=\"dcr-1k1a1x\">Trump cuts to weather data could make forecasts less reliable, warn experts<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:standfirst\" data-gu-name=\"standfirst\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\">\n<div class=\"dcr-15in7js\">\n<p>Use of AI is a valuable tool for weather prediction but only when it\u2019s trained with ample data, experts say<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:body\" data-gu-name=\"body\" class=\"dcr-kn9unn\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1a4fred\">\n<div id=\"maincontent\" class=\"dcr-ydnaza\">\n<div class=\"article-body-commercial-selector article-body-viewer-selector dcr-1c9t5u6\">\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">As the US prepares for hurricane season and a summer of record-breaking heat, experts fear the Trump administration\u2019s cuts to climate and weather data programming could make the federal government\u2019s weather forecasts less reliable when they are needed most.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">late last year launched<\/a> a suite of artificial intelligence-powered global weather forecast models which it said would improve \u201cspeed, efficiency, and accuracy\u201d. In March, an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/noaa-official-says-ai-will-overhaul-future-of-weather-forecasting-76baca60\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">agency official said<\/a> those models are being trained with centuries of weather data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Artificial intelligence is a valuable tool for weather prediction, but only when it is well-trained with ample data, said Monica Medina, who served as Noaa\u2019s principal deputy undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere from 2009 to 2012.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Under Trump, climate and weather data collection has declined, said Medina. This year, the Trump administration proposed a modest budget increase for the National Weather Service, but a 40% cut to Noaa overall.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"e12bba94-4f90-42bf-8ff3-74636b0acad6\" data-spacefinder-role=\"richLink\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-47fhrn\">\n<div data-print-layout=\"hide\" data-link-name=\"rich-link-4 | 4\" data-component=\"rich-link\" data-name=\"placeholder\" class=\"dcr-1kyw41h\">\n<div data-format-theme=\"5\" data-format-design=\"0\" data-format-display=\"0\" class=\"dcr-1bg5532\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/may\/09\/trump-council-fema-disaster-preparedness\" class=\"dcr-1m887w9\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-ut4tvs\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1h5b6rb\">\n<div class=\"dcr-169d7yv\">\u2018Closing the chapter\u2019 on Fema: Trump panel seeks to weaken disaster response amid climate crisis <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"dcr-eurq8n\">\n<div class=\"dcr-fkf7vq\">Read more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe absolutely need AI to help us crunch the data faster and to make sense of more and more data that we can collect,\u201d said Medina, who under Joe Biden also served as assistant secretary of state for oceans. \u201cBut right now, what we\u2019re doing is cutting back the data collection \u2026 we\u2019re going in the wrong direction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In an emailed comment, Erica Grow Cei, a National Weather Service spokesperson said: \u201cDespite the misinformation circulating about missing weather and climate data, there is, in fact, a wealth of weather data collected each day, from satellites in space, to a network of weather balloons, to buoys in the ocean, and land-based sensors.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But widespread reports show staffing cuts have forced Noaa\u2019s National Weather Service to scale back <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/jun\/28\/noaa-cuts-hurricane-forecasting-climate\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">satellites<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/oct\/27\/alaska-storm-emergency-response-trump-cuts\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">balloon launches<\/a>, key parts of the country\u2019s data collection system. And shrunk climate programs threaten ocean buoy networks and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.ara.cat\/environment\/trump-wants-to-liquidate-climate-research-by-dismantling-agencies-that-study-phenomena-like-nino_130_5734283.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">other observation systems<\/a>, experts say. Research into effects of the climate crisis on Earth\u2019s systems is also being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/jun\/28\/noaa-cuts-hurricane-forecasting-climate\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">slashed<\/a>, along with funding for researchers who analyze data and identify new sources.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWeather times time equals climate,\u201d said Craig McLean, Noaa\u2019s former acting chief scientist and head of Noaa Research. \u201cCutting climate research impacts the skill of our weather forecast, and it arrests our advancement of weather forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Those impediments are coming as the US is preparing for more extreme weather. A \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d is expected to spike temperatures, smash heat records nationwide and may boost hurricane activity in some regions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Noaa will issue its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"fb60319f-a43b-48da-a2f8-518e044e68f0\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-173mewl\">\n<div id=\"img-2\" class=\"dcr-1t8m8f2\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A satellite image provided by Noaa of Hurricane Melissa.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/d4aa2f9dc9472835920d6f454cc2da799aa90f6c\/0_0_3000_2286\/master\/3000.jpg?width=445&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" width=\"445\" height=\"339.09000000000003\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"><a href=\"#img-2\" data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-13fd1ms\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><button data-element-id=\"fb60319f-a43b-48da-a2f8-518e044e68f0\" type=\"button\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-4tmywn\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\"><span class=\"dcr-194i6pr\">View image in fullscreen<\/span><\/button><\/a><\/div><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">A satellite image provided by Noaa of Hurricane Melissa.<\/span> Photograph: Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"a-climate-that-no-longer-exists\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\">\u2018A climate that no longer exists\u2019<\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">For decades, scientists used traditional physics-based models to predict future weather conditions, using complex mathematical equations to simulate the dynamics at work in the atmosphere. New AI-based models instead identify patterns in decades of historical data to forecast weather outcomes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">That new technology uses less computing power than traditional models \u2013 which must run thousands of mathematical equations to work \u2013 and has been found to outperform traditional models for some aspects of weather forecasting. But it also seems to have major shortcomings, experts have found.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Crucially, when it comes to predicting extreme weather events, new models still \u201cunderperform\u201d, according to an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.aec1433\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">April study published in Science Advances<\/a>. Because their forecasts are based on past weather events, the authors found, they seem to have trouble simulating the record-breaking weather events that are becoming increasingly common amid the climate crisis, instead tending to predict weather more similar to historical events.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Traditional physics-based models don\u2019t have this problem, because they assess and predict the weather outcomes that certain physical conditions yield.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThey don\u2019t really care if there\u2019s a different situation than we\u2019ve seen before, because they can understand based on a rules-based [analysis] what will happen tomorrow,\u201d said Sebastian Engelke, a professor at the University of Geneva who co-authored the study.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Chris Gloninger, a forensic meteorologist who in 2023 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2023\/jul\/16\/chris-gloninger-tv-weather-man-climate-crisis\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">received death threats<\/a> after speaking about the climate crisis on television, likened the problems with AI-powered models to the ways other kinds of infrastructure struggles to manage a world experiencing global warming.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cYou have infrastructure systems in this country that are built on having a steady or static climate, and we know that that\u2019s not the case as extremes are increasing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Like stormwater systems that were not designed to keep up with climate-fueled heavy rainfall events or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2022\/jul\/19\/why-does-britains-tarmac-melt-and-its-rails-buckle-in-heat\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">roads that were not designed<\/a> to withstand climate-fueled extreme heat, \u201cthe AI weather models were trained on a climate that no longer exists\u201d, Gloninger said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">This problem already has real world implications, said Gloninger, noting that conventional models <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-24\/ai-predictions-were-little-help-for-massive-nyc-blizzard?srnd=phx-green\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">outperformed AI-based ones<\/a> when forecasting a historic February 2026 blizzard in the north-eastern US.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If the government scales up its reliance on AI-powered models while reducing the amount of data that powers them, that problem could compromise federal forecasts, said Gloninger.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIt\u2019s kind of a snowball effect,\u201d he said. \u201cYou need accurate data for inputs for our forecast models, but we\u2019re running on less data currently with this current administration.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Long before Trump re-entered office, the National Weather Service had faced decades of understaffing. Recent cuts have exacerbated the problem, Gloninger said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Noaa has not wholesale switched to AI forecasting. Instead, it says it is employing more artificial intelligence in its ensemble models, which blend multiple techniques to produce a range of probable outcomes. Cei said Noaa\u2019s new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">AI-powered model suite<\/a> is \u201can addition to our stable of weather models, not a replacement\u201d, adding that it was \u201cbuilt on data\u201d from the agency\u2019s flagship physics-based Global Forecast System model.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But Gloninger said he is still concerned that rolling any AI technology into federal models could raise problems, particularly amid cuts to weather data collection and climate research.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThere could still very much be issues when you have a component of artificial intelligence that isn\u2019t really trained when it comes to extreme weather and climate,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"e12a4fb6-0687-4eb4-ad23-54b44d1b5eb5\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-173mewl\">\n<div id=\"img-3\" class=\"dcr-1t8m8f2\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Neil Jacobs, administrator of Noaa, during a hearing in Washington DC in April 2026.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/e10ffc505519826d8aa24543d7a0de34a8f98957\/0_0_4000_2667\/master\/4000.jpg?width=445&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" width=\"445\" height=\"296.70374999999996\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"><a href=\"#img-3\" data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-13fd1ms\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><button data-element-id=\"e12a4fb6-0687-4eb4-ad23-54b44d1b5eb5\" type=\"button\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-4tmywn\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\"><span class=\"dcr-194i6pr\">View image in fullscreen<\/span><\/button><\/a><\/div><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Neil Jacobs, administrator of Noaa, during a  hearing in Washington DC in April 2026.<\/span> Photograph: Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Neil Jacobs, current Noaa administrator, is \u201cprobably one of the preeminent modeling scientists\u201d, said John Sokich, a former director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI don\u2019t believe he would rush implement something that has not been tested,\u201d said Sokich.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But though Jacobs is \u201ccommitted to advancing weather forecasting\u201d, Jacobs is also \u201ca Trump appointee who must back the Trump budget or leave his job\u201d, said McLean. The administrator <a href=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/news\/29042026\/noaa-defends-trump-cuts\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">defended<\/a> Trump\u2019s Noaa cuts at a House environment subcommittee hearing in April, McLean noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI don\u2019t think Dr Jacobs would be in a rush to be replacing capacity with AI that\u2019s not ready yet,\u201d he said. \u201cBut at the same time, the man has demonstrated his willingness to be obedient to the president who appointed him [and who is] destroying the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Weather forecasts serve \u201cindispensible\u201d practical functions, powering early disaster warnings, enabling safe aviation and shipping, and helping officials optimize sectors of the economy from energy production to agriculture, said Medina. Less accurate forecasting could pose dangers to Americans, she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWeather forecasts are vital to our economy, to our health, and to public safety,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-print-layout=\"hide\" class=\"dcr-qxqnsy\"><span class=\"dcr-1rq3vad\">Explore more on these topics<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-1dzx48f\">\n<ul class=\"dcr-1rrvs2w\">\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/us-news\/trump-administration\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">Trump administration<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/environment\/climate-crisis\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">Climate crisis<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/technology\/artificialintelligenceai\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">AI (artificial intelligence)<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/world\/extreme-weather\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">Extreme weather<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/tone\/news\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">news<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"dcr-nu129i\"><a href=\"mailto:?subject=Trump%20cuts%20to%20weather%20data%20could%20make%20forecasts%20less%20reliable,%20warn%20experts&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/may\/18\/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts?CMP=share_btn_url\" class=\"dcr-125qj9d\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-zhx6xs\"><a data-link-name=\"meta-syndication-article\" href=\"https:\/\/syndication.theguardian.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2026%2Fmay%2F18%2Ftrump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts&amp;type=article&amp;internalpagecode=us-news\/2026\/may\/18\/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer\" title=\"Reuse this content\" class=\"dcr-14rjinq\">Reuse this content<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:right-column\" data-gu-name=\"right-column\" class=\"dcr-1h2hraq\">\n<div class=\"dcr-tn16h9\">\n<section class=\"dcr-1hko8ef\"><\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Workers in front of monitors at Noaa headquarters. Photograph: Bloomberg\/Getty Images View image in fullscreen Workers in front<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1524"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1527,"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1524\/revisions\/1527"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}